Why Gillard should have backed down over Australian carbon tax

International Tax Review is part of Legal Benchmarking Limited, 4 Bouverie Street, London, EC4Y 8AX

Copyright © Legal Benchmarking Limited and its affiliated companies 2025

Accessibility | Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Modern Slavery Statement

Why Gillard should have backed down over Australian carbon tax

gillard.jpg

COMMENT: Yesterday marked the introduction of Australia’s carbon pricing mechanism, with companies being charged A$23 ($23) a tonne for their carbon dioxide emissions. Prime Minister Julia Gillard has swum against the tide to drive through the unpopular measure, but her efforts might be in vain and could also cost her the premiership.

The government has repeatedly stated that the carbon scheme is essential in continuing the fight against climate change and reducing greenhouse gas emissions, however the measure could be removed as early as next year if the opposition comes to power, and if poll ratings continue to fall, Gillard could be ousted even before then.

The carbon pricing mechanism is scheduled to transition to an emissions trading scheme in 2015, similar to the scheme employed in Europe, if it makes it past the election.

tonyabbott.jpg

Tony Abbott (pictured left), leader of the opposition, has vowed to repeal the tax if his Liberal party wins the next election, due to be held in 2013, and with the incumbent prime minister’s reputation and popularity with the electorate continuing to languish, an opposition victory is looking likely.

Gillard performed a dramatic u-turn by going back on her pre-election promise not to introduce a carbon tax, and resentment has grown from that point, with a Lowy Institute poll recently finding that 63% of voters are opposed to the tax.

And a Neilson survey released this morning indicates that Gillard’s Labor party has 42% support, while the opposition coalition has 58%, suggesting that both Labor and the carbon tax will be gone next year, though Independent MP Andrew Wilkie has warned that repealing the tax will not be as easy as Abbott may think.

Wilkie sees similarities with the GST, saying that despite the tax being controversial and unpopular, once “people have realised the sky hasn’t fallen in, they see the sense in the reform, they live with it a while, I think it becomes increasingly difficult for Tony Abbott to unwind it in the future”.

The uncertainty created by Gillard’s u-turn, and compounded by Abbott’s vow to remove the tax if elected, has had a negative effect on investment and has led to a fierce PR war with both the government and opposition launching expensive campaigns to try and win over the public.

The issue continues to be divisive, but Gillard must now hope that businesses focus on certainty and that by the time of the 2013 election, as Wilkie suggests, they will have grown accustomed to the scheme.

She will be encouraged by the fact that yesterday, as the tax officially took effect, 300 big businesses issued a statement of support for the scheme and bemoaned the opposition’s uncertainty-creating tactics.

But this raised another argument against Gillard’s decision to plough ahead with the carbon price. Estimates indicate that the impact of the tax will equate to $3.30 a week, but the government will be providing over $10 a week in tax relief, which suggests the revenue-raising ability of the measure will be severely limited for now, and that exemptions and other releifs will negate the impact of the green measure. Reports of large polluters receiving between 65% and 95% of their permits for free, among other exemptions, have severely harmed the government’s reputation in the run up to the 2013 election.

The carbon tax is set to be an election-defining issue and, should Abbott be victorious, it could also be one of the most short-lived climate change policies ever to have been implemented. When Gillard looks back on her statement that “There will be no carbon tax under any government I lead”, she will be wishing she had either stuck to that promise, or, more likely, never uttered it in the first place.

FURTHER READING:

Australia’s carbon tax plans fail to please

Australians told carbon tax “manageable”, despite unknowns

Airlines must adapt as Australia’s carbon tax hits

Why Australia’s carbon tax will prove ineffective

Australian steel company wants government handout over carbon tax

Gillard’s indirect tax plans still ruffling feathers

Report suggests Australian carbon tax details as popularity falls further

more across site & shared bottom lb ros

More from across our site

Heads of tax need to push their teams forward as strategic business advisers to add value across the organisation, says Sandy Markwick
Scott Bessent reportedly felt undermined by Musk naming Gary Shapley as acting IRS commissioner; in other news, Baker Tilly will combine with a top 15 US firm
The promise of nine years’ tax certainty and a ‘rational and pragmatic’ government process makes APAs a no-brainer, Indian tax advisers tell ITR
Despite garnering significant revenues from multinationals, Italy’s digital services tax presents pressing double taxation issues, say Stefano Simontacchi and Francesco Saverio Scandone of BonelliErede
ITR’s research shows that in-house tax counsel in Asia also feel underserved by their advisers’ international networks
World Tax global head of research Jon Moore tells ITR how his team spots standout submissions, and gives early statistical insights into this year’s entries
Australia’s conservative opposition will repeal controversial tax agent reporting rules if elected in the country’s May general election
Shapley would be the fourth person to hold the job this year; in other news, UK tax advisory firm MHA raised fewer funds than expected from its London IPO
The US needs to be involved in pillar one for there to be more international acceptance of the project, Michael Masciangelo says
The UK regulator is investigating EY’s auditing of the national postal service as it relates to the high-profile Horizon scandal, which saw hundreds wrongfully convicted
Gift this article